Phoenix Market Update May

Dated: 05/24/2018

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UP, Down, and Up again?

For the monthly period ending May 15, we are seeing an average $/SF of $162.32 for all property types across the ARMLS database. At $162.32, we are down 0.4%  ($0.66/SF) from the April 15 measure of $162.98. This result was slightly higher than industry estimates.

As expected, we are seeing a slight dip after the very strong rise over the prior month

 

Pending Listings

As of May 15, Pending Listings for all types across the MLS database shows an average list price of $166.54/SF, up 0.8% ($1.32/SF) from the April 15 reading. Amongst Pending Listings, we see 96.8% "standard sales", 1.1% in REOs and 2.1% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. We see little change in this breakdown of properties in the process of changing hands, with a small reduction in distressed and bank-owned homes.

These tend to be signs of a financial health in the home-owning demographic. 

After this short-term consolidation over the last month, industry experts anticipate prices will continue to rise again starting near the middle of June. Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on June 15 is $163.59, which is 0.8% above the May 15 reading.

 

This is a quick look at some annual comparisons for the Phoenix Housing Market. This infographic compares monthly home sales data from May 2017 to May 2018 and allows us to get a sense of how this year differs from the last. Let's take a look.

Active Listings are down significantly and home sales numbers are up 5.6% from the same time period last year. We are also seeing a rise in successful listings, as opposed to those that cancel or expire. What this tells us is that there a steep shortage of homes available for purchase, and buyers getting in line as fast as possible to secure homes.

In the same amount of time, we've seen median home prices appreciate nearly 9%, up to $255,000, with many expecting this trend to continue. This notion that home prices will continue to appreciate, combined with a rising interest rate schedule, has frozen many would-be sellers, who would be unable to attain the same low rates they used to purchase.

These conditions are exacerbated by a few things: lack of affordable new housing built in the last decade; large purchases by investment firms in lower price brackets; population influx to the Phoenix Valley from surrounding states.

While higher interest rates certainly will not help pocketbooks of buyers, it will, in theory, decrease the number of financially able buyers, giving lower range buyers a little more breathing room. 

 

 

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